Original-Research: Zefiro Methane Corp. (von GBC AG): BUY

Classification of GBC AG to Zefiro Methane Corp.

Company Name:	Zefiro Methane Corp.
ISIN:	CA98926D1069
Reason for the research:	Research Comment
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	USD 1.42
Target price on sight of:	30.06.2027
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Cosmin Filker, Matthias Greiffenberger

Share issue successfully completed; project pipeline of US$40 million confirmed

Zefiro Methane Corp. has successfully completed a capital increase with gross proceeds of approximately CAD 5.0 million. As part of the transaction, a total of 7.58 million units were placed at an issue price of CAD 0.66 per unit. Each unit consists of one common share and one-half of a warrant. After deducting placement-related finder's fees of CAD 0.30 million, the company is expected to have received net proceeds of approximately CAD 4.70 million (USD 3.35 million). At the end of the 2025/26 financial year (30 June 2026), cash and cash equivalents amounted to USD 1.09 million, meaning that the company's liquidity position has now improved significantly. The proceeds are primarily intended for general corporate purposes and to strengthen working capital. In addition, a portion of the funds may be used for strategic acquisitions.

Zefiro recently disclosed the aggregate value of its already awarded government-funded well-plugging projects for the first time. Accordingly, the current government backlog amounts to approximately USD 40 million, with the underlying projects extending through June 2029. Approximately USD 4.9 million of this backlog is expected to be executed in the current second quarter of the 2026/27 financial year. The remaining approximately USD 34.6 million is expected to be recognised as revenue primarily during calendar years 2027 and 2028. Importantly, the reported backlog exclusively comprises government-funded projects. Projects for private oil and gas operators are not included due to their typically much shorter lead times and therefore represent additional revenue potential.

The largest individual contract within the government-funded project pipeline is the previously announced three-year agreement with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), valued at USD 19.6 million, under which approximately 200 oil and gas wells in Ohio are to be plugged and abandoned. This is complemented by the USD 11.5 million contract announced in September 2026 and awarded by an environmental protection agency in the Great Lakes region, with a planned project duration from November 2026 to June 2029. Other previously announced contracts include projects valued at USD 2.4 million and approximately USD 1.9 million. In addition, Zefiro has now disclosed three further projects in Ohio for the first time, with an aggregate value of approximately USD 5.0 million, covering a total of 48 wells. The previously communicated extensive project pipeline has thus been quantified more clearly for the first time and, in our view, provides significantly enhanced revenue visibility over several financial years.

In addition, Zefiro has been awarded a so-called Exploratory Contract by the ODNR for work in southeastern Ohio. These preliminary activities include the assessment and preparation of well sites before a separate contract for the actual plugging and abandonment work is awarded. Zefiro is thus expanding its range of services to include an additional stage of the remediation process, while also opening up a further potential revenue stream. The specific contract value has not yet been disclosed.

We have incorporated the recent capital increase into our otherwise unchanged DCF valuation model, resulting in a new price target of USD 1.42 (previously: USD 1.50). The increase in liquidity is offset by a dilution effect, which is further amplified by the additional warrants issued (valued using the Black-Scholes model). Based on the current share price of USD 0.45, we continue to see significant upside potential. We therefore maintain our BUY rating.

You can download the research here: 20261028_Zefiro_Comment_engl

Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) The following potential conflict of interest exists in relation to the company analysed above: (5a,11); A list of potential conflicts of interest can be found at: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

Note on issuer-sponsored research: This research report is issuer-sponsored research and has been prepared in accordance with the EU Code of Conduct for issuer-sponsored research.
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Completion: 28/10/2026 (8:13 am)
First distribution: 28/10/2026 (10:00 am)