Original-Research: LAIQON AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to LAIQON AG

Company Name:	LAIQON AG
ISIN:	DE000A12UP29
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 8.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

H1 review: profitable Q2 marks earnings inflection

Final H1 results show that LAIQON's enlarged platform has reached a clear earnings inflection. Positive Q2 EBITDA demonstrates that the higher AuM base is now translating into operating earnings, with Asset Management providing the profit base and Digital Wealth representing the fastest-growing component.

Sequential momentum provides the clearest evidence of the earnings step-up. Supported by the MainFirst consolidation, H1 sales rose 63% yoy to € 23.2m. EBITDA improved to € -0.3m. In Q2, sales increased 23% qoq to € 12.8m and EBITDA swung to € 1.1m from € -1.4m in Q1, corresponding to a Q2 margin of 8.4%. Excluding the € 1m restructuring charge and the € 0.7m M&A gain, Q2 EBITDA amounted to c. € 1.4m, implying an adjusted margin of c. 11%.

Asset Management combines a reliable earnings base with meaningful performance fee potential going forward. Segment AuM increased c. 10% since year-end to € 8.2bn at H1, while the segment generated € 3.4m of EBITDA at a c. 22% margin. The current market performance trajectory should enable year-end performance fees. Based on our understanding, a visible opportunity is the WHC Super-I share class, which manages € 239m and whose latest NAV stood c. 11% above its March 2025 launch value. The class carries a 20% performance fee above a 4% hurdle, subject to the relevant high-water mark, and its first fee period ends in December 2026.

Digital Wealth's white-label ramp-up has reached group-relevant scale. Segment AuM nearly doubled since year-end to € 1.5bn by August 25, driven primarily by LAIC's white-label business, which reached € 600m at H1. July gross inflows exceeded € 100m, consistent with the expected Q3 monthly run-rate. WertAnlage currently covers more than 100 cooperative banks, equivalent to c. 25% of the relevant market, leaving ample room for further penetration. The recently launched AI ETF with Amundi adds another scalable product to the segment. The higher AuM base is already translating into sales, which more than doubled qoq to € 1.4m in Q2.

The FY26 guidance requires further sequential improvements, yet looks achievable (eNuW). The confirmed ranges of € 53-58m sales and € 4.5-7.5m EBITDA require H2 sales of at least € 29.8m and EBITDA of € 4.8m. We view the lower end as achievable, supported by the higher AuM base, the leaner run-rate cost base and the outlined high-margin performance fee opportunities. The expected H2 earnings improvement also supports a manageable near-term funding bridge. At H1, € 10.5m of cash stood against c. € 17.2m of current borrowings and purchase price liabilities, excluding leases. A further € 1.5m of bond proceeds was received in July and LAIQON targets placing the remaining € 2.6m of the 2026/31 bond by September 29. On a simplified basis, this leaves a residual c. € 2.6m to be covered by operating cash generation.

In sum, LAIQON has entered profitable quarterly territory with a reliable Asset Management core, accelerating Digital Wealth and an improving financial profile. The current AuM trajectory and the visible operating leverage support our expectation that LAIQON will meet its FY26 guidance. Further platform scaling should translate into continued earnings growth beyond 2026. Estimate changes mainly reflect higher-than-expected PPA amortisation related to the MainFirst acquisition, which weighs on reported EBIT without affecting EBITDA or cash flow. EBITDA therefore remains the more meaningful measure of LAIQON's current operating performance, in our view.

BUY, PT € 8.50, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: laiqon-ag-2026-08-31-previewreview-en-3ec80
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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