Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to bet-at-home.com AG

Company Name:	bet-at-home.com AG
ISIN:	DE000A0DNAY5
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

Q3 26e: Gaming to take the lead on volume growth

bet-at-home.com will release its Q3 figures on November 5th. We expect top- and bottom-line improvements, with particularly strong growth in Gaming. In detail:

Strong GGR growth anticipated. GGR is to rise by 9.3% yoy to € 11.2m (eNuW), with both segments contributing. Key growth drivers include an anticipated improved Betting margin related to internal optimization efforts and an acceleration in Gaming. Net revenue looks set to grow faster than GGR, rising 11.1% yoy to € 8.5m (eNuW), as a higher Gaming share reduces the tax burden (eNuW: € 2.7m, 24.5% of GGR).

Online Gaming GGR is seen to improve 23.6% yoy to € 2.1m (eNuW). Volumes are seen to increase by 24% yoy to 17.4m (eNuW), as bet-at-home.com continues to develop its Gaming business with targeted initiatives and a recent regulatory change is seen to provide an additional boost. Effective July 1, 2026, the maximum permitted bet per spin in Germany increased from € 1 to € 3 and even as much as € 5 under certain conditions. We assume that bet-at-home.com has implemented this as it came into effect and customers to have responded positively. Against a strong comparable base, we assume a broadly stable Gaming margin of 12.1% (eNuW).

Online Betting GGR is to grow 6.4% yoy to € 9.1m (eNuW). We expect the Betting margin to improve by 0.5pp yoy to 13.5% (eNuW), supported by internal optimization efforts. Following a weak Q1, volumes started to stabilize with elevated marketing spending in Q2 but still fell 5.6% yoy. Against this backdrop, volumes are seen to rise by 2.5% yoy to 67.4m (eNuW) in Q3, despite seasonally weaker trading conditions due to management initiatives resulting in an improved betting offering and usability. The company received second-best scores for these categories in an annual consumer test published by DtGV in October 26. Overall, it was ranked third among the providers overall.

EBITDA before special items to improve. Given the stronger GGR and a normalized cost base following the World Cup, EBITDA before special items is projected to come in at € -0.5m (eNuW), compared to € -0.9m in Q3 25. The EBITDA margin is to improve by 4.1pp to -4.7% (eNuW).

Improvements expected to gain traction. bet-at-home.com is pursuing various initiatives to strengthen the user experience. Initial progress was already evident in H1 26, when the NPS increased by 27 points to +17 compared to the last survey at the end of FY25. The recent consumer test rankings of DtGV further underline the positive perception of changes made. In our view, the progress made should be reflected in Betting volumes gaining momentum over H2 26e (eNuW: +5.4% yoy).

Estimates unchanged. We expect Gaming to maintain its strong growth trajectory, with stronger-than-anticipated adoption of higher permitted bets per spin representing a potential short-term catalyst. While Betting revenue growth is expected to remain seasonally subdued in Q3, we anticipate stronger growth in Q4. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 GGR estimate of € 49m. By contrast, the FY26 EBITDA before special items guidance of € 0–4m appears feasible, but demanding. We project the 9M figure at € -1.2m. Achieving the guidance range is expected to depend on a strong Q4 contribution. We reiterate BUY at a PT of € 5.0, based on FCFY´26e.

You can download the research here: bet-at-homecom-ag-2026-11-02-previewreview-en-367e6
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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