Original-Research: OHB SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE

Company Name:	OHB SE
ISIN:	DE0005936124
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 272
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Margin path gains credibility, chg.

The CMD had already done most of the heavy lifting. OHB had pre-signalled € 2.1bn order intake in 2025 and its 2026-28 ambition. The FY25 release therefore matters primarily for quality. Q4 adj. EBITDA reached € 45m on € 384m total revenues, implying an 11.6% margin. That is already above the 11% EBITDA margin targeted for FY26, thus the margin path outlined at the CMD is already visible in the exit rate. Importantly, Q4 25 likely still reflects only limited benefit from a richer defence mix, to our understanding, still accounting for only c. 10% of group sales (eNuW). As defence scales up, this should support the mid-term EBITDA margin target of >12% (in line with eNuW).

FY26 guidance looks fully consistent with the CMD framework. OHB guides for c. € 1.4bn total revenues, broadly in line with our € 1.44bn estimate (c. 15% yoy growth), alongside an EBITDA margin of c. 11% (eNuW: 10.7%).

The second relevant datapoint came one day earlier with EPS-Sterna. The € 248m order covers 20 small satellites and is strategically relevant. It shows OHB is seen capable of turning a single demonstrator into serial constellation production. In fact, this capability should become more important e.g. with the tender for SATCOMBw 4.

SATCOMBw 4 is taking shape. Recent press reports indicate that Airbus, OHB and Rheinmetall intend to submit a joint bid for the Bundeswehr’s sovereign LEO communications network, reportedly comprising >100 satellites and carrying a total contract value of € 8-10bn. Compared with earlier reports, the inclusion of Airbus changes the setup. While this likely lowers OHB’s potential workshare versus the narrower bidder group, it should also raise award certainty materially. We now view a one-third share as realistic. Even on that basis, the programme could imply c. € 2.7- 3.3bn of cumulative order intake for OHB and should be margin accretive, in our view.

OHB combines a credible earnings ramp with growing participation in Europe’s sovereign space build-out. The Q4 margin of 11.6% already sits above the FY26 target, although our FY26 estimate of 10.7% still leaves room for normal quarterly volatility. EPS-Sterna and SATCOMBw 4 also support the view that OHB is strengthening its position in constellation-driven programmes.

Key catalysts are further large orders in 2026, which we continue to expect mostly in H2, more detail on SATCOMBw4, additional constellation wins after EPS-Sterna and operational progress at RFA. Each of these looks set to support order intake assumptions or improve confidence in OHB’s strategic positioning.

BUY maintained, on a rolled over DCF; new PT € 272 (old: € 260).

You can download the research here: ohb-se-2026-03-20-previewreview-en-eadc0
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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