Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name:	Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN:	DE0005493092
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 5.1
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Title hopes gone for 25/26 season; Chg.

Topic: Within four days BVB got knocked out of the 2025/26 UCL campaign and lost a crucial game in the Bundesliga, which should have put all championship hopes aside. In detail:

Last Wednesday, BVB went to Bergamo for the second leg of the UCL playoff round. Despite a 2-0 win in the first leg, BVB exited the campaign following a last minute penalty, resulting in a 1-4 away loss. As a result, BVB is missing out on at least € 11m UEFA premium payments as well as sales for at least one additional home game. As the premium payments come at a de facto 100% margin, BVB cut its net income guidance from € -5 to 5m to € -22 to -12m, which in our view also includes a slightly weaker operating performance apart from the UCL exit, given that the round of 16 premium is only € 11m. As the company has mostly been conservative with their outlook, we position ourselves slightly more “optimistic” with our new estimate of € -4.3m.

A couple of days after the Bergamo match, BVB hosted Bayern on Saturday for the highlight match in the Bundesliga. Despite a significantly improved on-pitch performance, the team had to suffer a 2-3 defeat, putting them 11 points behind Bayern. A margin that we view as impossible to overcome in the remaining 10 matchdays, especially given Bayern’s exceptional form this season. Although the Bundesliga title does not result in any direct premium payments, it increases prestige thus possibly attracting more attractive sponsoring deals as well as international merchandise sales. Yet, we do not factor this in our estimates, given Bayern’s dominant position.

Despite the defeat on Saturday, BVB still has an 8 point cushion to 5th placed Leipzig and a significantly better goal difference, which would be the decisive factor in a possible tie on points. Mind you, a top-4 finish is crucial for BVB as it allows for UCL participation, which is c. 5x as lucrative as the UEFA Europa League. Notably, even 5th place might be sufficient should the German teams be among the top-2 international performers this season (currently 2nd with a minor margin on 3rd).

Besides the on-pitch performance, BVB already signed two new young players for the upcoming season. While 18 year old Kauã Prates joins the club for an alleged fee of € 12m from Brazilian side Cruzeiro, Justin Lerma, also 18, will arrived from Ecuadorian club Independiente for c. € 4m. In our view, both signings completely fit into BVB’s Scout & Develop approach, which aims to sign young, talented players for comparably low fees, develop them into top-class players and sell them with strong returns after a couple of seasons.

Despite the earlier than planned UCL exit, the team is playing a strong season in the Bundesliga and has a high chance to qualify for the 2026/27 UCL campaign.

Reiterate BUY with a new PT of € 5.10 (old: € 5.20) based on DCF.
 

You can download the research here: borussia-dortmund-gmbh-co-kgaa-2026-03-04-update-en-3ed03
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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