AD Mortgage Study Finds Buying Now Beats Waiting in 61% of Historical Scenarios

Fort Lauderdale, FL, September 8th, 2026, FinanceWire

AD Mortgage, a leading wholesale lender in the United States, today released a nationwide study examining whether homebuyers historically benefited from purchasing a home immediately or waiting two years. Across all analyzed state-year comparisons from 2000 through 2022, buying immediately produced a lower total purchase and financing cost in 61% of scenarios.

The study, Does the Perfect Time to Buy Exist? used actual home values, 30-year fixed mortgage rates and median household income data across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It compared buying in the starting year with waiting two years while saving 10% of median annual household income each year, then purchasing under the market conditions that followed.

The results show why a lower mortgage rate alone did not guarantee that waiting would pay off. From 2013 to 2015, the average 30-year fixed rate fell from 3.98% to 3.85%, yet buying in 2013 still produced the better outcome in 84% of analyzed state scenarios. Changes in home prices and buyers’ ability to save often offset the benefit of lower borrowing costs.

“This study shows that trying to predict the market is not a guarantee. Rates matter, but so do home prices, savings and local conditions. The right time to buy is when a borrower is financially prepared and the purchase fits their goals,” said Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of AD Mortgage.

Key findings include:

• Buying now produced the better historical outcome in 61% of all analyzed state-year scenarios
• Buy Now won in 98% of state scenarios in 2003 and 100% in 2004 and 2016
• A lower rate did not ensure waiting would win: from 2013 to 2015, rates fell from 3.98% to 3.85%, while Buy Now still won in 84% of state scenarios
• The historical advantage could reverse sharply, moving from 96% for Buy Now in 2017 to 2% in 2018, and from 24% in 2011 to 98% in 2012
• Location materially changed the odds, with Buy Now win rates ranging from 39% in West Virginia to 74% in California and Florida

The findings suggest that buyers may benefit more from evaluating their financial readiness and local market conditions than from waiting for a single “perfect” combination of prices and mortgage rates.

The analysis is based on historical data and is not intended to predict future market conditions or provide personal financial advice. Individual circumstances and housing markets vary, and buyers should consult a financial advisor or housing professional for guidance.

Read the full study: Does the Perfect Time to Buy Exist?

About AD Mortgage

As a premier direct mortgage lender, AD Mortgage offers a full spectrum of Conventional, Government, and Non-QM loan products with 24-hour turnaround times and some of the most competitive rates in the industry. In addition to their AD Power Jumbo loan product, AD Mortgage offers programs for Prime borrowers, Foreign National borrowers, as well as borrowers with imperfect credit histories. Programs with no income verification are also offered for investment property loans.

The company offers free concierge services, bank statement reviews, marketing tools and resources, and more to support the brokers they serve. In 2025, AD Mortgage received several prestigious industry awards, including HousingWire Vanguard Award, PROGRESS in Lending’s Lending Luminary Award, National Mortgage Professional’s Legend of Lending Award, HousingWire Industry Titan Award. This year, the company was also featured in CBS, Bloomberg, and Inc., underscoring its growing influence and leadership in the mortgage industry.

AD Mortgage is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS ID #958660. 899 W Cypress Creek Rd, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33309. For important disclosures and state licensing information:

https://admortgage.com/important-disclosures/

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