Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook Questions Traditional Market Cycles

Bybit, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has published its 2026 Crypto Outlook report, analyzing upcoming influences on digital asset markets. The report focuses on bitcoin and wider crypto assets, assessing macroeconomic drivers, regulatory trends, and potential structural changes. It questions the relevance of the traditional four-year crypto cycle as new factors like institutional engagement and macroeconomic policy gain prominence.

The report discusses a potential shift in the crypto market's response to macroeconomic dynamics, such as monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could benefit risk assets. Despite bitcoin's recent underperformance compared to U.S. equities, the report identifies avenues for rekindled correlations with major stock indices, assuming supportive conditions persist.

Based on options market data, there's a 10.3% implied chance of bitcoin reaching $150,000 by 2026's end, reflecting market sentiment rather than definitive predictions. The analysis also underscores the impact of potential regulatory changes, particularly concerning asset index inclusion and policy shifts from the Bank of Japan.