Original-Research: Neovacs S.A. - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Neovacs S.A.
Unternehmen: Neovacs S.A.
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Kursziel: 2.90 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: End FY 2017
Analyst: Cosmin Filker
Neovacs is a biotechnology company, which specialises in a technology
platform called 'Kinoid' for active immunotherapy in the area of autoimmune
and inflammatory diseases. On the basis of the company's own technology for
the introduction of a polyclonal immune response (protected by six patent
families until at least 2032). Neovacs focuses its development activities
on active immunotherapy with IFN? kinoid, which is being developed for the
medical indications SLE (systemic lupus erythematosus) and DM
In the first half of 2016, the focus was on the further development in
particular of the clinical trial phase IIb (IFN-K-002) for the indication
SLE. This trial is currently being conducted with a total of 178 patients
in 19 countries in Europe, Asia, Latin America and the USA. It is worth
mentioning that in the last reporting period, Neovacs was able to extend
approval of the phase IIb trial to the USA and South Korea. While the USA
has the highest number of SLE cases, SLE may be classified as a rare
illness (orphan disease) in South Korea which should facilitate a much
quicker market approval.
The clinical development of IFN? should also be extended in the current
financial year of 2016 to the indication dermatomyositis. In this respect,
the preparatory measures have been taken for the start of a clinical trial
phase IIa in Europe. In this trial, 30 DM patients in France, Italy,
Germany, the UK and Switzerland are to be treated with the Neovacs product.
For our sales forecasts, we have used the marketing schedule and made
estimates concerning the relevant regional case numbers, the potential
Neovacs market share as well as treatment costs. Along the same lines of
the expected progress in clinical approval we do not expect the initial
sales until the 2018 financial year (SLE in South Korea). However,
substantial proceeds are not expected to come until the 2020 financial year
onwards when the marketing of IFN-K is expected to start for the treatment
of DM in Europe, the USA and Asia. Approval for the treatment of SLE should
bring about a substantial increase in sales.
On 12/10/2016, Neovacs S.A. announced it would be collaborating with the
research laboratory for diabetes immunology of the renowned Cochin Hospital
in Paris. Under the management of Dr. Fgnès Lehuen and Professor Christian
Boitard, the proof of concepts is to be produced with the use of IFN-K for
the treatment of type 1 diabetes.
Even though we have not included this new potential trial route in our
forecasts, a positive result of this research collaboration could be an
important milestone for Neovacs S.A. Unlike SLE and DM, type 1 diabetes is
an illness with massive case numbers and therefore immense market
potential. According to estimates by the IDF (International Diabetes
Federation), there are currently around 415 million people suffering from
diabetes, which equates to approximately every 11th adult worldwide. Type 1
diabetes accounts for approximately 10% of all diabetes cases.
We have not initially taken into account the additional potential from
expansion of the indication. At present, only the indications systemic
lupus erythematosus and dermatomyositis therefore serve as the basis for
our valuation model. Our target price calculated within the framework of
the DCF model, taking into account an unchanged marketing probability with
phase II products amounting to 22.8% (source: Journal of Health Economics;
The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs), remains
unchanged at EUR2.90 per share. We can therefore confirm our current target
price and continue to issue the BUY rating.
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